Our property market predictions for 2022

How will the Oxfordshire property market perform in 2022?  

I anticipate the dynamic positioned to determine Oxfordshire's property market performance for 2022 will be 'supply'. Following a remarkable 2021, which saw exceptional price rises and high transaction levels, the local Estate Agent's shelves are now looking empty.

This problem is far from just local, but also prevalent nationwide. Data analyst Twenty Ci reports that across the UK properties available for sale are currently down one third on this time last year. 

The post pandemic financial pinch is perhaps also likely to hit harder this year. Combined with the prospect of rising interest rates, inflation and the energy price crisis this will lead many to apply more financial caution than normal, and could encourage some 'would be 2022 sellers' to 'stay put' until they have recouped losses.  

The Government's willingness and ability to provide further Covid bail out measures is also waning, so it seems unlikely that further stamp duty incentives, designed to stimulate housing market activity, will be forthcoming. 

So far this paints a picture of a solid year, albeit with lower transaction levels and more static house prices. The greatest uncertainty still however lays with Covid. If the property market can function normally, without disruption or pausing caused by further lockdowns, all should be well. However in a year likely to see lower transactions levels any breaks in activity could impact far more greatly.

The familiar annual pattern of a 'spring bounce' in new instructions converting to a surge of properties going 'under offer' during early summer ahead of late summer completions looks likely to be delayed this year. Both Omnicron and simply the sheer volume of buyers and sellers that transacted last year to capitalise on the available stamp duty incentives are both factors, and are likely result in a slower first and second quarter, but may lead to higher than usual instruction and 'under offer' activity in quarters three and four. 

A solid residential market, albeit perhaps peaking later in the year than is usual and where sellers retain the upper hand, seems likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

If I can at any stage assist with advice, or to discuss potential future acquisitions or purchase plans, please do not hesitate to contact me. 

John Gebbels, January 2022